Oil and Energy

Fossil fuels are a limited resource, the end of which is now in sight

There is general agreement that oil production (and gas production) will follow a curve, with production increasing to a maximum and then declining back to zero. We are entirely persuaded by the argument that, in the case of oil, that peak is either occurring now (in 2005), or will follow in a matter of a few years.

Gas is likely to peak by 2015. There are dissenters to these views: some of the oil companies maintain that peak oil may not occur for another 20 years, but we find their arguments unconvincing. (Oil companies agree that new discoveries have fallen way behind extraction, but argue that they are learning better to exploit existing oilfields.

However, the evidence does not appear to bear this out, and oilfields such as the USA and North Sea have peaked very much as predicted.) The end of oil and gas is problematic because some 70% of UK energy currently comes from these sources.

In many ways it is this point of peak production, rather than the final exhaustion of the last reserves, which defines the “end of the oil age”. We find ourselves at present in a situation where demand for oil is growing rapidly, not least because of economic growth in China and India, but production is not growing to meet that demand.

The result is that oil prices continue to rise (they recently reached $58, with analysts already predicting a rise to $70 and beyond). This will force policymakers, businesses and consumers to start to find less oil-intensive ways of living their lives.

Our food system, and our economy in general, are hugely reliant on energy, and in particular on oil and gas. Gas is used to produce fertiliser (ie to increase food production), and oil to drive tractors, to distribute food at various stages of processing, for the massive amounts of energy used in packaging food, to chill and freeze food, for the drive to the supermarket to buy it, and to cook it. One estimate is that 17% of the UK’s energy use is in the food system.

Will renewables step in to fill the gap left by oil and gas? The likely answer is, only in part. Richard Douthwaite’s excellent book, Before the Wells Run Dry, is a collection of essays giving different views on these questions, and taking into account not only the maximum potential for renewable energy generation, but also constraints such as the fact that there is a limited amount of fossil energy left with which to build the necessary generating plant.

A strong consensus emerging from the book is that renewables might provide all of our electricity needs, and perhaps somewhat more than that. But electricity currently accounts for only about one-fifth of the energy we consume as a society. Our total use of energy in the UK is going to have to drop to perhaps 20-40% of its current level.

This is not to say that each sector of the economy, or each purpose for which we need to use energy, will have to reduce by 60-80%. Rather, we will inevitably focus the available energy on the things we most need – like heating our homes and growing food. Trivial and energy-profligate activities – like flying off on weekend breaks, or transporting food unnecessarily around the country – will be the first to go.

It seems entirely likely that food production and distribution will revert to the most energy-efficient model. This is where food is produced very locally to its point of consumption, and eaten as soon after harvesting as possible.

Energy itself will also be created in this way. One of the benefits of renewable energy is that it can generally be produced on a small scale. Even hydrogen, we understand, may well be capable of being produced in small quantities, for instance using the excess energy from a single large wind turbine. One benefit of this local approach is that, at present, a surprisingly large proportion of all energy is used to transport energy (by wires, pipelines or road), or else lost in the process of transformation from one mode to another (e.g. when coal is burned to create electricity).

The more locally electricity can be generated, the less the energy needed to transport it. The more transformation processes can be carried out either inside or close to homes, the more the “lost” heat can be used productively, for instance to heat those homes.

Another attraction of local, community-owned energy is that it helps consumers to understand and accept the limits of the energy they can access. To make the best use of resources like wind, we need to lose the concept of the “base load”, and start to use energy when it is available. Owning a share of a wind turbine, for instance, would make this reality much clearer.

Another wasteful use of energy is to compensate for our failure to recycle nutrients. We use energy to treat and pump sewage, and more energy to produce fertilisers (nitrates from natural gas, phosphates mined from the ground) to replace the nutrients discarded in this way. An energy-efficient agriculture will be one whereby nutrients return to the soil by the shortest possible route.

So, just by looking at food production, waste disposal and energy production, a picture begins to emerge of major shift in our lifestyles. This picture becomes even more convincing if we look at the other big issues facing the world – climate change, population growth and the world economy.

Source: www.eafl.org.uk April 2005